Recession Predictions For 2024. The sahm rule forecasts recessions based on a 0.5% rise in a smoothed version of unemployment rate over the course of a year, as developed by economist. The main reason that economists predicted a recession last year is that they expected the fed to cause one.

By the time the recession begins, however, fed officials will be confident they are on the right path and will likely hold interest rates level through most of 2024. Strategists say stocks can keep climbing, but warn that risks to the market outlook are.